By Bhaga Warkhade
Assembly elections are being held in five states in the next few months. Out of these five states, Assam is the only state controlled by the BJP. It is believed that the Congress lost power in Assam because of Rahul Gandhi. Though the Congress has now brought the five parties together in Assam to support the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and still declares that the doors of the Congress are still open for the BJP opposition, it is doubtful how successful the BJP will be in overthrowing the BJP.
The Congress was in power in Assam for 15 consecutive years. This power was taken away by BJP last time. Though Assam is a small state in the eyes of the Bharatiya Janata Party, its priority is to maintain power in Assam as most of the northeastern states are now under BJP control. That is why Home Minister Amit Shah is frequently visiting Assam. The BJP has only one thing to say, which is that in the northeastern states, the National Citizenship Registration Act and the revised Citizenship Act have a different role to play, but in other parts of the country. In the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP won 10 out of 14 seats in Assam. The Congress had to settle for just one seat. In 2014, the party had three MPs. Other parties, including the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), won three seats. Other birds found success at Kokzhar, Karimganj, Silchar. The Congress was strong in Kaliabor. The BJP had formed alliances with major regional parties like Assam Gana Parishad and Bodoland People’s Front. Against this backdrop, a recent survey has said that the BJP will retain power here. The BJP is currently in power in Assam. BJP’s Sarvanand Sonowal is the Chief Minister of Assam. Legislative elections are likely to be fought under his leadership; But the Congress has let go of the puppy in the middle. Former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has announced that he can nominate former Chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi for the Chief Minister’s post. Of course, he was not given much importance by the BJP. BJP has taken Ranjan Gogoi to Rajya Sabha.
According to Tarun Gogoi, during his tenure, there were many other results including Ram Mandir and this widened the BJP’s polls. The question is why the BJP will consider Ranjan Gogoi’s name when it has a good face like Sonowal. Even though the Lok Sabha elections were contested in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it also reflected the governance of the state concerned. The increase in BJP’s seats during Sonowal’s tenure means that the people are satisfied with his performance. A recent survey shows that. The survey shows that the five-year anti-incumbency will not have much effect there. It is not easy for the Congress alone to stem the tide of BJP’s victory. Therefore, he has decided to take other parties with him. Members of the Election Commission have recently visited Assam. Election dates will be decided by considering the festival there and the 10th-12th exams.
Assam Assembly elections are likely to be held in May. With 126 members in the Assam Assembly, the BJP had won 60 seats in the last elections, while the Congress had won only 26 seats. A team of the Election Commission led by Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora reviewed the situation there. Congress is now aware of its limitations. In Maharashtra, BJP was able to get out of power by joining hands with Shiv Sena and NCP. The Congress has decided to implement the same Maharashtra pattern in Assam. The Mahavikas Aghadi in Maharashtra has been a great success to stop the BJP from advancing. This experiment is being carried out in Assam considering the success achieved by the Mahavikas Aghadi in the Legislative Council elections and Gram Panchayat elections. Mukul Wasnik is an inspector in Assam and has taken the lead. In Maharashtra, the Congress has started using this formula in other states of the country as well. The experiment will be conducted in five states and the Assam experiment is being looked at as the first experiment.
The Congress has formed a grand alliance to stop the BJP in Assam, the largest state in northeastern India. A total of six parties have joined the Congress-led alliance, which will contest the Assembly elections this year. The Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress formed the Mahavikas Aghadi and kept the BJP out of power in the 2019 Assembly elections in Maharashtra. In order to keep the BJP, which had won extra seats before Maharashtra, away from power in Karnataka, the Congress, which has twice as many seats, took a secondary role by giving the Chief Minister’s post to the secular Janata Dal; But the experiment lasted only 14 months. In Maharashtra and Karnataka, the lead came to power after the elections. In Assam, however, a grand alliance has been formed before the elections. In Assam, Congress, AIUDF, CPI, CPM, CPI (ML) and Zonal Morcha are the six parties that have come together. The leaders of all these parties have decided to contest the elections together.
The AIUDF has taken the lead. Also, some left parties will join this front. It is said that all these parties will come together and contest the elections for the benefit of the people of Assam. Now the leaders of these parties have appealed to other anti-BJP parties to join them in this grand alliance. In the 2016 Assam Assembly elections, the BJP won 60 out of 126 seats, while the BJP’s ally Assam Gana Parishad won 14 and the Bodoland People’s Front won 12 seats. The Congress had won 26 seats. Badruddin Ajmal’s party had won 13 seats. The Left parties could not even blow a pumpkin. Against this backdrop, it remains to be seen what miracle the newly formed front will do. Former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi himself has declared that he is not a candidate for the Chief Minister’s post. The key question now is under whose leadership the Congress will contest the elections. Also, in the last two months, there was talk that some Congress MLAs would split. BJP had announced to nominate these MLAs; But just as the BJP has started cracking down on the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, nothing has started in Assam yet. The BJP is confident of winning this election. According to pre-poll polls, a BJP-led government is likely to be formed in Assam once again. Assam has a total of 126 Assembly seats and a majority requires 64 seats.
According to opinion polls, the NDA is likely to win 77 out of 126 seats in the Assam Assembly elections this year. The front had won 86 seats in the last election. This means that the party may have to bear the loss of nine seats this time. On the other hand, the Congress-led front could reach 40 seats, up from 26 in the previous election. Speaking of other parties, AIUDF is expected to get seven seats and others two. The poll also asked who is the most preferred candidate for the Chief Minister’s post. Most of the people preferred Chief Minister Sarvanand Sonowal as the Chief Minister. Thirty per cent people considered him suitable for the post of Chief Minister. After that, BJP leader Hemant Biswa Sarma is preferred by 21.6 per cent people. Congress’ Gaurav Gogoi has been favored by 18.8 per cent people for the Chief Minister’s post. Of course, this poll is before the Congress leads with other parties. Moreover, the credibility of the polls is always a matter of debate.